GistBiz Times

Create birdie opportunities with the driver, then convert them with the putter. That'll be the primary scoring separator this week at The Renaissance Club in the Genesis Scottish Open. Typically I look at approach play first but for this course, the common thread amongst contenders is gaining strokes off the tee. Putting could be the defining feature, too, determining who can turn 18-25 footers into birdies.

So for this week, I'm looking at aggressive driving, and predicting who can capitalize once they're on the green. As far as weather, there's some breeze every day but nothing like sustained 20-30 mph winds that could fundamentally change the course. Basically, don't expect brutal links weather. Which means this could be another 2024 birdie week, pushing to at least -18 under.

Scheffler is (still) the standard. He fits because this course rewards players who separate before they even reach the green. Renaissance elevates elite ball strikers and nobody enters with a better combo of driving, approach play and birdie creation. He's already shown he can contend here despite losing strokes with the putter. So now imagine if the putter cooperates? Scheffler has gained strokes putting in four straight events. But if he's merely neutral instead of a liability, Scheffler is the most likely to create that separation.

Fleetwood's game is balanced. I'll take that over having one or two dominant skills. His Scottish Open history is outstanding, with three top-10s since 2020. He's driving it well, putting better than normal -- which helps because he's lost strokes putting in Renaissance in back-to-back years -- and has become one of the stronger birdie-makers in the field. His recent iron play hasn't matched the level of other elite contenders but if there were a course where irons are less predictive, it's here.